Uncertainty

High school (ages 12+)
Thinking & Learning

Name:

Date:

Step 1 · Read the article

Open the article and read it at the level above. Then answer the questions below in your own words.

https://smallwhale.org/articles/uncertainty

Write what each word means, using the article.

Do not copy the article. Write two things you learned, the way you would explain them to a friend.

Answers below are taken from the article’s stored facts, so they match what the student read.

1. What is the nature of uncertainty?Arises from imperfect or unknown information, stochasticity, complexity, or dynamism
2. What is the historical development?Formalized through probability theory and statistical inference
3. Why do scientists talk about uncertainty?Scientists mention uncertainty because measurements and experiments have small errors. Acknowledging these helps them test ideas correctly and avoid claiming absolute truths.
4. How do people make decisions when they don’t know the future?They use probability and math to guess how likely different outcomes are, then choose the option that seems best based on those chances.

Stochastic Process: A process involving random variables, making future states unpredictable.
Bayesian Inference: A statistical method that updates the probability of a hypothesis as more evidence becomes available.